Navigating EV Regulations and Global Fleet Projections: Forecourt Strategy Guide

Regulatory Volatility and Global Fleet Projections: A Forecourt Strategy Guide

Fuel retailers and forecourt operators face a complex landscape defined by shifting federal regulations and expanding global electric vehicle (EV) adoption. Navigating this environment requires balancing immediate policy developments in North America with long-term energy demand projections provided by international analysts.

Policy Mandates and Legislative Challenges

In September 2026, retail fuel industry associations NACS, NATSO, and SIGMA submitted a joint letter to members of the United States Congress supporting Congressional Review Act (CRA) resolutions to overturn three California-led EV mandates, as reported by NACS. The primary provision under scrutiny is California's Advanced Clean Cars I (ACC I) framework. Established by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) for model years through 2025, ACC I mandated that major automakers scale battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle deliveries to approximately 8% of total state sales by 2025.

Under Section 177 of the Clean Air Act, individual states are permitted to adopt California’s emissions standards without separate federal authorization. According to NACS, more than a dozen states have utilized this mechanism. Fuel retailers argue that individual state mandates create a fragmented regulatory environment and advocate instead for uniform, technology-neutral federal standards driven by market demand.

Global Electric Vehicle Fleet and Power Demand Projections

Despite domestic regulatory disputes, long-term projections from the International Energy Agency's Global EV Outlook 2026 indicate steady global growth in electric mobility. Under the IEA Current Policies Scenario (CPS), the global fleet of electric vehicles (excluding two- and three-wheelers) is expected to top 450 million units by 2035, representing a fivefold expansion from end-2025 levels.

Energy demand and displacement data from the IEA show that:

• In 2025, the global EV fleet displaced approximately 1.7 million barrels of oil per day (mb/d), with China accounting for roughly 1 mb/d of that total.
• By 2030, global oil displacement from EVs is projected to reach approximately 5 mb/d under both Current Policies (CPS) and Stated Policies (STEPS) scenarios.
• Electricity consumption by EVs totaled approximately 250 TWh in 2025, representing roughly 1% of global final electricity demand.
• By 2035, annual electricity demand for EVs will exceed 1,500 TWh under the CPS and reach 1,700 TWh under STEPS.

While China held 70% of the world’s EV stock in 2025, the IEA projects its share will decline to over 55% in the CPS and around 50% in the STEPS by 2035 as deployment accelerates in emerging markets and developing economies.

Strategic Analysis for Forecourt Operators

*Note: The following analysis reflects strategic evaluation based on available data and should be distinguished from verified historical facts.*

Forecourt operators must navigate near-term regulatory unpredictability alongside clear multi-year growth trends in power requirements. While legislative challenges through CRA resolutions may alter regional state-level deployment timelines, global vehicle production targets continue to move toward electrification.

Operators evaluating EV charging deployment should treat potential financial gains as unverified operational hypotheses requiring site-specific testing:

• Hypothesis on Non-Fuel Sales: Installing high-power DC fast charging equipment increases high-margin in-store food and beverage sales by extending driver dwell times.

*Proposed Test*: Conduct a six-month comparative trial measuring average basket size and total spend between EV drivers utilizing chargers and traditional liquid fuel customers across five representative suburban sites.

• Hypothesis on Grid Capacity and Demand Charges: Implementing local battery energy storage systems (BESS) alongside fast chargers reduces peak demand charges and operational overhead.

*Proposed Test*: Install a 100 kW / 200 kWh BESS unit at a trial station; monitor utility tariff bills over twelve months against a control site without storage operating under identical charging volume.

By separating regulatory policy arguments from empirical power demand trajectories, forecourt operators can design resilient capital expenditure plans that accommodate market-driven transition speeds.